Falling Fertility Rate in India

Syllabus: GS2/Health

Context

• The Supreme Court held that laws penalising having more than two children have lost their relevance due to the falling fertility rate in India.

Total Fertility Rate

• India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime assuming she lives through her reproductive years (15-49 years), has dropped to 1.9 below the replacement level of 2.1.
  • Replacement rate is the number of child births a woman must go through to keep the population constant from one generation to the next without migration. 
• The only states in India with a TFR higher than 2.1 in 2024 were Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.
• Delhi records the lowest TFR at 1.2, followed by Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal at 1.3 each.
• In 1985, India’s TFR was 4.3 and has fallen at a rate of about 0.06 per year and there is no sign that this decline will reverse.
  • At the current pace, India’s TFR is projected to drop below 1.6 by 2031.

Implications

• Slower Population Growth and Eventual Stabilisation: A fertility rate below replacement level means that, over time, each generation will be smaller than the previous one. Eventually, the population is expected to stabilize and later decline.
• Rising Ageing Population: A sustained low fertility rate will increase the proportion of elderly citizens.
  • According to the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, India’s population aged 60 and above is expected to increase from approximately 10 crore in 2011 to 23 crore in 2036.
  • India may face challenges similar to those experienced by countries such as Japan and South Korea i.e. higher pension liabilities, greater healthcare expenditure and increased demand for geriatric care and social security.
• Future Labour Force Challenges: A declining birth rate eventually leads to fewer entrants into the labour market. Economic growth could slow if productivity improvements do not compensate for a smaller workforce.
• Regional Demographic Imbalances: Fertility rates vary significantly across states, most southern and western states have well below replacement fertility, while states such as Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan continue to record relatively higher fertility levels.
  • This may alter the internal migration patterns, political representation, resource allocation and labour market dynamics.

Way Ahead

• Need for New Population Policies: India’s policy focus may gradually shift from controlling population growth to managing ageing population.
• Opportunity to Strengthen the Demographic Dividend: India still has a large working-age population, lower fertility can reduce the dependency burden on families and the state.
  • Greater investments can be directed towards education, health, skills, and productivity of the workforce.

Source: TH